Someone asked me the other day what I thought the defining issue of this upcoming election might be. They means aside from The Pier, which has clearly already driven much of the conversation in the Mayoral race as well as the City Council races.
I fumbled a bit and finally came up with "homelessness," which is true, but in too many ways is too narrow in scope. It is also really a county-wide issue, and in ways similar to that of The Pier, has been a failure of governmental communications as much as anything (although to be clear, it has been primarily a human failure of epic proportions).
The real answer to the question of what is the big issue of this election is: the tipping point. This area -- and I mean the Tampa Bay area, including Tampa, Temple Terrace, Dunedin, Safety Harbor, Clearwater, St. Petersburg, my home town of Gulfport -- is at a tipping point. Like the rest of the nation, the demographics of the Tampa Bay area are changing. I would suggest that the epicenter of this great change is right in St. Petersburg, but I couldn't prove it scientifically.
So what is the tipping point? What are we tipping towards? What is the big thing that candidates and citizens should be talking about in this election?
Well, first, I think it's not just this election. I think it'll be this election, the mid-term election next year, and the Presidential Election year in 2016, too.
Here in Pinellas, the conversations -- not just one -- are starting to happen. Light rail and transportation. The future of governmental services for at risk children and families. Even our ability to keep a major league sports team (I wrote about this over at my business blog, here). Sure, even the iconic waterfront.
Those conversations are happening or will be happening.
Concurrently, the political dominoes will begin to fall. I don't want to come off as ageist, but Congressman Young -- who has been in service to this country as long as my parents have been alive -- is 83 this year. He's running for re-election this year. But two years from now? Anyone's guess.
His departure would open the doors, wide, for a number of imminently qualified Democrats to seek the Congressional seat. Both State Senators Brandes and Latvala are due to run again in 2014. Latvala was briefly mentioned as a possible replacement Lieutenant Governor.
State House seats are up again in the area, and many are quite competitive.
Of course, much will be driven by who is occupying the Mayor's Office after this election (it should be Rick Kriseman -- support him however you can!).
The next two or three electoral cycles are about more than just election outcomes. They are about more than the issues people are discussing. They are about more than changing demographics.
They are all of those things, bound up together, set on an inevitable course towards, well, the future. The train has left the station. Where will we end up?
