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Health & Fitness

Here's where sh*t stands – the "eight days left to the primary" edition

For many families in Pinellas County and Tampa Bay, today marks the end of Summer and the first day of school. So first of all, be careful out there. In the immortal words of Michael Keaton in “Mr. Mom”, it’s north to drop off, south to pick up. 

For the rest of us, it’s eight days before St. Petersburg voters know whether the witch (Kathleen Ford) is dead or if she lives to fight another day.

Here’s where sh*t stands in St. Pete’s municipal elections …

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Bill Foster and his political adviser, Jack Hebert, are telling their Republican allies to lay off of Ford and focus on Rick Kriseman between now and the primary. This is because Foster — mistakenly I might add — does not want to face Kriseman in the general election.

Not all of Foster’s supporters are heeding these orders, knowing that if there is a chance to finish off the unpredictable Ford, it should be taken — even if that means Foster has to face Kriseman in November.

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St. Petersburg’s business community will breathe a sigh of relief if, in fact, Ford does not make it out of the primary. It is has been reluctant to embrace Foster and it doesn’t know/trust Kriseman, who is as partisan a Democrat as there is in local politics. But if Ford finishes in the top two on August 27, the Chamber of Commerce crowd knows that it will have to enthusiastically support Foster or Kriseman over Ford. However, if Ford’s not in the run-off, the business community can let the election play out.

Why is Kathleen Ford stuck in third in the polls? Not how did she get there, but why is she stuck in third? Because she has no money to advertise a positive message. It’s one thing to avoid debates and the media and still broadcast a positive message — heck, that’s what Rick Scott did at the statewide level in 2010; it’s another to do so without the resources to get out your message. 

At this point, it’s pretty clear that Darden Rice will emerge as the top vote-getter in the primary for District 4, but will it be Carolyn Fries or David McKalip who finishes in second? Rice’s camp would like to see McKalip make it to the general because he’s such an obnoxious opponent that it will be easy to draw a winning contrast with the Tea Party activist and neurosurgeon. Fries, on the other hand, looks and sounds like a reasonable candidate who may be able to rally conservative/Republican voters opposed to Rice’s worldview. If this were Miami politics, you’d see Rice’s campaign carpet-bombing Fries in the primary, just to make sure McKalip made the run-off.

If the race for District 4 is a foregone conclusion, how would you describe the District 8 contest? Amy Foster very likely will receive more than 50% of the primary vote, but will still have to win a citywide general election. Despite all of his miscues and personal issues, Steve Galvin will probably move on to the general election because, well, someone has to and Robert Davis and Alex Duensign are less credible, politically speaking, than Galvin. There’s also the fact that a certain portion of the electorate will vote blindly for someone just because they have been embarrassed by the Tampa Bay Times. 

Still, it’s amazing to me that Galvin has not only not dropped out of this race, but is still in town.

Am I suppose to write something about the race for District 6 between Karl Nurse and a couple of tomato cans? 

What about the vote to ‘Stop the Lens’? Well, that is going to happen, meaning The Lens will be stopped. I predict 62% of the electorate will vote “Yes” to cancel the contract with Michael Maltzan, while 38% will vote “No” to build The Lens. 

But take comfort, “Build the Pier” folks … sometimes there is addition in subtraction, victory in loss. Ten years ago, the Citizens for a New Waterfront Park, alarmed by the prospect of Rick Baker’s proposal to redevelop a portion of Albert Whitted Airport, launched an initiative to convert AWA into a public park. While that effort failed, what emerged from it — a revitalized airport with an adjacent park — was much better than what was there before.

I see the young professionals supporting The Lens and hope that after they have their lunch handed to them next week by the C.A.V.E. people (Citizens Against Virtually Everything) that they will remain engaged in local politics. 

In fact, didn’t I read somewhere about a vote next year on a light rail plan for the county …

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