Obama Campaign's Big Ad Buy in Florida

The Obama campaign is going up with a huge TV ad buy in Florida, including in the expensive Miami market, according to a senior campaign official, reports Chuck Todd for NBC's First Read. ...

"The Obama camp, in fact, is claiming this is the largest and earliest buy in Miami for a presidential contest. The statewide buy targets 10 media markets -- including Tampa (2,700 advertising points), Orlando (2,700 points), Miami (1,300 points), Jacksonville, Tallahassee, and even neighboring Mobile, Ala. "

MITT ROMNEY ONLY HAS A 2% CHANCE OF WINNING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IF HE LOSES FLORIDA via Nate Silver of the New York Times

"Imagine that the election is very close: the popular vote is within one percentage point either way. This condition occurred roughly 3,000 times out of the 25,000 simulations that I ran in the forecast model on Monday.

"For each of the top 12 states on our tipping point list, I looked up the probability of Mr. Romney winning the election conditional upon losing the state in these 3,000 simulations. If Mr. Romney has great difficulty winning the Electoral College without the state in a close election, we can fairly describe it as a must-win.

"These simulations estimate that Mr. Romney has only a 2 percent chance of winning the election if he loses Florida — even assuming that the election is very close over all. Losing its 29 electoral votes just presents too daunting a challenge for him, given his inability so far to penetrate into states like Pennsylvania that could plausibly substitute for it."

JEB BUSH WORKING ON BOOK ABOUT IMMIGRATION via The Associated Press 

Penning a book is becoming a rite of passage for politicians with any ambition, with JFK and Barack Obama among the most well known in presidential history. Florida political buffs are able to stock their libraries with tomes by the Sunshine State's illustrious politicians:

"The former governor is a working on a book about one of the Republican Party's most contentious issues: immigration. ... Bush has a deal with Threshold Editions, a conservative imprint of Simon & Schuster, for "Immigration Wars: Forging An American Solution." Threshold announced Wednesday that the book is scheduled for next spring and will be co-authored by conservative attorney and activist Clint Bolick. Financial terms aren't being disclosed. According to Threshold, Bush hopes to "bridge the partisan divide" on immigration."

FLORIDA BUDGET PICTURE INCHES CLOSER TO "ROSY" by Aaron DeSlatte of the Orlando Sentinel

"For the first time in five years, Florida policymakers are looking at a horizon free of projected budget shortfalls, thanks to growing tax collections and cuts to classrooms, road-building and the state’s social safety net. The state’s top economist told the Joint Legislative Budget Commission on Wednesday that lawmakers and Gov. Rick Scott would have more flexibility next year when they write a new budget than at any time since 2007 — a product of deep “recurring” cuts enacted over the years, and the slow economic recovery that has led to some re-hiring. All told, state government is projected to have $2.7 billion in its three main reserve funds this year, and that could create political temptations for lawmakers and Scott to spend it on tax cuts or restoring more classroom dollars. After adjusting for growth in programs and education expenses in the current 2012-13 fiscal year, the state would carry over $1.55 billion in surplus revenue. By 2014-15, state revenues are expected to be $2.5 billion higher than expenses, although revenue forecasts two years out are typically revised."

STATE PURGE LIST SHRINKS, AGREEMENT REACHED via Michael Peltier of the News Service of Florida. "A controversial list of 2,600 allegedly illegal voters has been whittled to 207, Florida election officials said Wednesday after running the names through a federal immigration database. Florida Secretary of State Ken Detzner said the names, about 8 percent of the initial list, will be forwarded to local election officials as early as next week. The revised list was released the same day as an agreement was announced between the state and voting rights groups over efforts to remove non-citizens and other ineligible voters from the ranks. “We want every Florida voter to be confident that their vote is protected and not hurt in any way by the illegal activity of others," Detzner said in a statement. "We know that every vote counts, especially here in Florida where only 537 votes decided the presidential election in 2000.”

NUKE COSTS TO BE DECIDED NOV. 20 via The News Service of Florida

"The state Public Service Commission on Tuesday finished hearing testimony about requests by Florida Power & Light and Progress Energy Florida to pass along about $300 million in nuclear-project costs to customers in 2013. The PSC is scheduled to rule on the requests Nov. 20. FPL is seeking $151.5 million to cover costs related to upgrading already-existing plants in Miami-Dade and St. Lucie counties and initial work on two potential new reactors in Miami-Dade. Progress is seeking about $145 million related to upgrades at an existing plant at Crystal River and two potential new reactors in Levy County. Attorneys representing consumers and business groups opposed portions of the requests during a hearing that started Thursday and continued Monday and Tuesday. But utility officials said the projects would have long-term benefits, such as reducing the amount of money that would have to go to buying natural gas for other power plants."

A KISS, A HUG AND MORE BUZZ ABOUT CHARLIE CRIST 

Republican-turned-Independent Charlie Crist embraced and kissed Democrat and Congressional candidate Lois Frankel after a private fundraiser in West Palm Beach on Wednesday, adding to speculation the former governor of Florida would consider a run for office as a Democrat.

“I am so proud to be here with Lois Frankel,” Crist said. “She and I served in the legislature together in Tallahassee. And, she’s a great public servant. [She] was a great mayor. And, she will be a great member of Congress. God bless you, Lois.”